That entire talking point exist only to those who are being dragged kicking & screaming into accepting that NJPW is doing well.
The main event drew the biggest paid house in the company in 14 years, and the show grew for the fourth year straight. In 2011 there were 18,000 people in the building. I'd say they're picking the right main events, but then again I also have a feel for context and I don't compare what's happening today to what happened 20+ years ago.
I don't know what "so hot" means.
They just hit a 14 year high in attendance, and the complaint is that it only grew 1000 tickets. In August, they drew the fourth biggest house in the world, a house that would have qualified as the biggest house WWE drew all year with the exception of WrestleMania, and there are people (you among them) who considered that a failure.
I don't think anybody is comparing this run to the glory days of Japan or to the Attitude Era...except for the people who are constantly holding it to those standards as the comparison point and downplaying how well they're doing. They are "hot" when you look at where they were four years ago. To deny that seems strange.
The fact that the in ring has been so widely praised contributes to this, too. On a much, much smaller scale, a promotion like PWS would be getting incredible amounts of hype if the shows weren't terrible. They're arguably the most successful indie in the U.S., and get very little credit for it because the shows stink. Hot shows help perception.
Everytime I try to break up quotes on the new board it screws up my posts, so I'll address some of the points here individually, I just wanted to make it clear who I was responding too.
1. I don't think anyone is "blaming" the Okada v. Tanahashi match for doing 36k paid. I know I'm not. However the narrative being pushed by certain people - most notably W2BTD - is that that main event, which some fans were initially iffy on from a booking perspective was obviously a logical and even genius booking decision by Gedo and Jado because the advance numbers were huge and the expectation from most people was that they were going to do well above what they did last year. Instead at best they did a thousand more people (I say at best because I have heard reports - I believe from VOW - that last years paid number was 35750 which means the houses for both years could be nearly identical when all is said and done). 36k is a good number, very good really, and you could even argue great. But when the story being sold is "this was a great decision, the critics were wrong and the growth will prove it!"...and then there is no growth. There you go. It's not Okada and Tanahashi's fault the reporting from Meltzer sucked and that expectations from NJPW hardcores were inflated, and no one should be "blamed" for a house that large, but let's get real about who is spinning when it comes to New Japan.
Also please note the counter argument of "Well AJ v. Okada wasn't going to draw that" is a bit of a strawman, because most of the people questioning the logic of the Okada v. Tanahashi main, were people who believed this years Dome main event should have been Okada v. Nakamura, with AJ v. Tanahashi in the two slot. If someone wants to argue that wouldn't have done as well they are free do so, but Nakamura was the most consistent draw in the promotion last year, and that was the most protected top level match in the promotion this year prior to the G1 Final (and arguably even after it).
2. The context argument coming from W2BTD is comical. On Twitter he tweeted the other day that Tanahashi had headlined eight Domes shows and seven of them showed growth. Now that may mean something, and shouldn't be dismissed, but independent of context that might lead you to believe all sorts of things that are false. It's arguments like that "contextual" one which lead to people assuming Tanahashi had sold out the Tokyo Dome multiple times and voting for him for the WON HoF on those grounds. The truth is that if you expand the context you will notice that Dome show attendance plummeting coincides very closely with the rise of Nakamura and Tanahashi to the top of the cards - consistent upward trajectory doesn't start to emerge until Okada shows up (note that I"m not arguing Okada is a bigger star than either of them, but I do think he was a needed catalyst for growth). You will also notice that of the five worst drawing Dome shows in history Tanahashi was in the main event of three of them, and was in the semi-main IWGP championship match of a fourth. Going off a quick glance, and acknowledging that I may be off (also I"m only looking at the 1/4 shows) Tanahashi was in the main event of seven of the ten worst drawing Dome shows in history. Now let me be clear - those facts in and of themselves are deceptive too. If you isolate one from the other you can arrive at all sorts of conclusions that are faulty. But a contextual argument is not one that pretends history doesn't matter, anymore than it is one that inflates histories importance. Especially when one of the issues being discussed is the relative "hottness" of a promotions.
3. Speaking of hot, the reaction to New Japan and it's successes by many people is largely a contextual one itself. I don't want to speak for all others but the "so hot" narrative is one that's out there and it leads to people being duped into believing NJPW could do 50k or more to the Dome this year, or people thinking they'd do 25k at Seibu, or people buying certain lines from the promotion and/or the wrestling media that would be viewed with a massive amount of skepticism if they were coming from any other promotion. People think I'm hard on New Japan, but I merely hold them to the same standards I would hold any other promotion. Someone can acknowledge a promotion is doing better than it was and is growing in meaningful ways, while also criticizing certain mistakes/lingering issues/et.
4. On the G1 Final as a failure, I think it's going to far to use that term, but I also think pointing to the size of the house is deceptive and not just because the building was only a bit over half full. This is a company that has talked about running Dome tours. I think that's nuts but they've done it. While I'm sure Seibu was profitable the fact that they pulled back this year, combined with the air conditioning issue and the costs associated with it last year tell me that NJPW didn't see running that show again as something that was worth their time. It's a nice number to point to in the sense that it shows they can draw more than 15k once a year - something that was not at all clear after Yokohoma Arena shit the bed - but it's hard to call it a success. I do think Meltzer saying that 17 or 18k would be seen as a success a couple of days before and that turning out to be the actual number tells you a lot about Dave's sourcing and reporting on NJPW though (to keep this relevant to the bigger topic at hand).
5. The "hotness" of the in ring product is a good point, but it's attached to a bigger point - New Japan gets a lot of coverage from Dave Meltzer. Before I get lambasted by people accusing me of accusing them of parroting Dave's opinions, that's not even my point. My point is that New Japan is a Meltzer favorite which has dramatically increased it's visibility and appeal to hardcore fans. New Japan is "hot" because Dave Meltzer reports on it, and the proof of this hotness is..that Dave Meltzer reports on it. The fact that NJPW gets the coverage it does and has the visibility it has (which I don't think it would have without that coverage) has fueled a lot of the perception of NJPW's business hotness which is ahistorical. I'm not talking about the issue of growth that we all agree is there. I'm talking about the people I know who read the "scoop" sites or even subscribe to the Observer who think NJPW is doing bigger business than any promotion in the world, argue that Tanahashi is a star/draw on the level of Hashimoto or Takada, et. because the coverage is such a big part of the hardcore wrestling fan universe at this point. Even critics of this are often guilty of being influenced by the coverage - for example the sort of de facto assertion that NJPW is the clear number two promotion in the world is something I often fall into myself (for the record I'd still take NJPW, but I could at least see a case for CMLL for example). The point here is not that Dave is wrong to cover NJPW, but rather that by covering it as an in ring product that is "hot," it does bleed over to other things.