I think this is at least partially a function of deference to the wrestling canon.
If one removes the widely accepted hardcore fan notion of the artistic genius and depth of AJPW from the equation, it is very difficult for me to see any reason why Kawada and Misawa would care about something like "learned psychology" more than Cesaro and Kofi Kingston. I suppose you could make the argument that truly great wrestlers will sort of innately gravitate toward those sort of more subtly intelligent ways of working, but I think that's more of a stretch.
To my eyes there are really two different arguments at play in this thread.
One is a sort of denial-ism and seems to be led by Parv. Here the argument seems to be that much of what hardcore fans see as "learned psychology" is just an exercise in narrative creation on the part of the viewer. I think there is some truth to that, but much less truth to it than I would have believed as recently as two years ago. There are two reasons for my changed opinion on this.
The first is my obsessive/immersive wrestling habits. I find that when I jump in and watch a ton of something at once I find these connective tissues more often. No doubt some of that is narrative creation, but in many cases I will see a spot from one match that is countered in a unique way in another that seems to clearly signal "you aren't going to do that to me again." In many cases it is so explicit that I think it almost defies common sense to see it as accidental, or lacking in intent.
The other factor that changed my thought on this was getting to know more people in the wrestling business. I have zero interest in turning this thread into an "I'm an insider and know how things really work!" stroke fest. I'm not an insider and I don't think knowing people in the business makes me a "better fan" or some dumb horseshit like that. That said several performers I know have volunteered to me examples of things they have done in matches which explicitly played off of previous matches. This was not done in the context of a discussion on "learned psychology" and in more than one case was presented as something that they see as separating great workers from good workers. Now you might think that take is bullshit, and you might think it points to a less authentic way of performing (I'm sort of anticipating potential arguments from Parv here), but the theme of "learned psychology" as a deliberate practice among people I know is too consistent for me to be a denier, particularly as it pertains to modern wrestling.
The second position - or the Loss position if I may - seems to be that even if "learned psychology" is a common trait of certain modern WWE performers, it's not really psychology in the traditional pro wrestling sense because it isn't catered to the correct target audience. I assume he would take any performer who engages in this practice in the WWE as being self humoring at worst, or playing to the wrong crowd for the wrong reasons at best. The deeper argument seems to be that psychology is largely about controlling the crowd, and this sort of inside baseball is ultimately ineffective at doing that. In that sense it seems to be a variant of denial-ism which argues that "learned psychology" cannot be real psychology in the WWE because of who their target audience is.
I admit that I reject this argument in part because I see it as the Bush v. Gore of pro wrestling critical debate. While I am of course a believer that different crowds want different things, I am deeply suspicious of the idea that only WWE crowds are incapable of grasping these things, and thus "learned psychology" is not real psychology solely in the confines of the WWE. It is possible that this is a leap I've made and Loss is not actually arguing this, but it seems to be strongly implied if nothing else so I don't feel wrong questioning it.
Here I would argue that A. I don't think the target audience is exclusively 8 year olds and B. Even if it is, true immersive/obsessive viewing of the product (which is unquestionably what the WWE wants) is going to result in people catching many of these things even if they are 8 years old or even younger.
To the first point, while there is no doubt a struggle between Vince's vision and the vision of others, I don't see much evidence that Vince sees his core audience as young children. I think it is absolutely fair to say he wants to hook people as children and maintain them as lifelong fans, but he is not in the business of promoting a live action Spongebob Squarepants. He is very aware of the fact that he has adult fans, and I think his product is generally presented in an attempt to appeal to many audiences. Beyond that it seems obvious to me that being a good worker has never meant more than it means now when it comes to being pushed as a core attraction, and the WWE's own strategy seems to indicate that they understand that online/hardcore fans represent a substantial portion of their fanbase.
To the second point even if Vince were promoting a product explicitly targeted to third graders, I don't think it means that working matches that play off other matches would the wrong move. In fact I think that working matches for an audience that is likely to be more obsessive in their viewing habits (as children seem to be from my own experience as a parent) is actually quite smart, especially when it comes to someone working within the context of a weekly television product. I know from my brothers that they seemed to pick out these things when they were younger and I don't think they were exceptions. I can also recall occasions sitting next to kids at wrestling shows where they had to explain to their disinterested parents why a certain move was attempted and failed and why it was significant. All of this suggests to me that this isn't over the head of 8 year olds by it's very nature whether they are the core audience or not.
The fact is that Cesaro was one of the two or three most over guys on the entire roster when he went out with injury. I think there are valid arguments about whether or not he could be a top guy, but he was over. Christian was the ace of a lame duck brand, and his long title matches seemed to be worked specifically to get the crowd very invested in him and his work. He remained over despite being booked in a position that was ultimately destined to fail. Were these guys over because of their use of "learned psychology" (which I annoyingly keep putting in quotes)? That seems a stretch. But the point is that they weren't drawing critics when they were using it. So at worst those traits were embedded Easter Eggs for fans who were paying attention in performances that were connecting on a broader level. And to that end I think the critique of it fails.
At the end of the day I think the real divide here is between those who immerse themselves in a product and those who watch less consistently and/or cherry pick. I don't think this is restricted to this debate either. I think similar things can be said about those who don't "get" lucha, or myself as it pertained to Joshi before I decided to just dive right in. I may write about this more later, but one of the things I've learned about myself through this project is that immersion is really critical to understanding certain aspects of various wrestling products.
Would be very interested to hear more on the bolded paragraph. If this psychology requires watching a ton of something at once is it realistic to expect even a significant portion of the paying audience to pick up on it? In WWE, is that possible on top of all the commentary and noise that is often explicitly geared to take your attention away from the actual in-ring? If the point is that it requires studious, obsessive viewing then that seems to collapse the entire point.