HOF threads are usually good, but many times they become just a name-dropping thread and debates are lost. So I figured I would just concentrate on one candidate. With Bagwell's recent surgery, it has become apparent the end of his career is near. Two weeks ago on Cold Pizza, Skip Bayless rejected Bagwell's HOF case based solely on Bagwell's career .297 batting average and 449 home runs. Bayless compared Bagwell to Fred McGriff, who he also rejected.

 

Yesterday on ESPNNews, Rob Neyer took the opposite side. Neyer pointed out that Bagwell is essentially a better player than Harmon Killebrew. And when you consider the weight of the evidence, Neyer is probably right. Let's take a look.

 

What did Killebrew do better? He hit more home runs, and played in more games. Bagwell was a better contact hitter, compiling more hits and less strikeouts. Bagwell hit 30 points better than the league average over his career. Killebrew hit UNDER the league average. Killebrew's career OBP was 46 points over the league average. Bagwell beat the league average by 71 points.

 

Using OPS+ (a figure measuring OPS compared to the league average and adjusted for park), Bagwell beats Killebrew, 150 to 143. Bagwell hit almost 200 more doubles than Killebrew. Killebrew was a three true outcomes type of player. Bagwell, along with hitting for average, also hit for power and drew walks.

 

And that is just at the plate. Killebrew was a largely immobile fielder. Bagwell won a gold glove at first base. Killebrew was a slow runner. Bagwell stole 202 bases.

 

I do not mean to demean Killebrew here. He was a HOF caliber hitter. Bagwell's candidacy may suffer because he did not do something extraordinarily well, like hit for average or crack 500 home runs. But when you look at the full volume of his resume, you see that he did an extraordinary amount of things to help his team win. The Astros made the playoffs five times with Bagwell. Three of those times, Bagwell led the team in OPS. And people forget that the Astros played in the Houston Astrodome until 1999, and the Astrodome was one of the toughest hitters' parks in MLB history.

Do you think his very poor post season performances will hurt his chances?

 

I agree that he deserves a spot. The guy was awesome in a pitcher's park for years and played good defense. It has been that shoulder injury that has slowed him down and nothing else.

Hasn't Bagwell's postseason career been extremely limited? His numbers in the '04 postseason should help silence critics, too.

Do you think his very poor post season performances will hurt his chances?

 

I agree that he deserves a spot.  The guy was awesome in a pitcher's park for years and played good defense.  It has been that shoulder injury that has slowed him down and nothing else.

His postseason failures will hurt, because they are high profile. I do not think they are as bad as people think. In 1997 and '98, Bagwell went 1-12 and 2-14 respectively. In 1999, he went 2-13, but drew 5 walks and scored three runs. The last two times, Bagwell hit better and posts very good OBPs. In fact, his career postseason OBP is now .371.

Most of the writers who will vote will look at his HR and RBI total and then his AVG. I'd be willing to bet that Bonds drew a fair amount of post season walks prior to 2002 but they were never mentioned.