THE MENTAL GAME OF BASEBALL

 

Many of us who rely on sabermetric principles and statistics to evaluate baseball tend to concentrate on the physical aspects of the game, and ignore the mental aspects of the game. Bill James wrote in his recent essay "Underestimating the Fog" that sabermetricians tend to discount those effects than they can not measure. We can not measure tools such as intangibles, and when sportswriters use such concepts to praise certain players, our contrarian instincts react to a point where we reject such measures entirely.

 

We know of course that baseball players are not robots. Common sense dictates that individual players react differently to certain situations. However, in the absense of real evidence, many sportswriters and analysts use the confusion to heap praise upon players that look inferior in the statistics. So where does the truth lie? Hopefully we can shed a little light on the subject.

 

I think it is important to note that there is an important aspect of sabermetrics that many people miss. Bad sabermetrics will make claims regarding baseball that defy common sense. Good sabermetrics seeks a common sense explanation to explain out of the ordinary findings. I think the Defensive Independant Pitching Statistics do a good job of explaining findings that contradict our assumptions. Remember that any good statistic regarding baseball will usually have a good common sense application in the game.

 

Pressure situations

 

There are three popular variations. One, that certain players perform well in "clutch" situations, simply late in close games. Two, that certain pitchers lack the "closers' mentality" needed to close games. Pitchers such as LaTroy Hawkins and Octavio Dotel are accused of not having the needed abilty. Three, that some players do not adjust to the big market pressure, which almost always refers to New York City. Let's look at these one at a time.

 

First off, clutch situations. My view is as follows. Say you have a scale of pressure situations, that runs from 0-100. Hitting alone in a batting cage would rate a zero. Hitting in front of your kids at home would rate a five (they lose respect when dad whiffs on little Jimmy's knuckler). The difference between AAA and the Majors is huge, along the lines of four times as many fans, and many more watching on television and listening on the radio. We could say that playing in the Majors rates around a 90 on the pressure scale. After you survive the pressure and reach the majors, how much more difficult is it to survive the pressure of a clutch situation. Players withstand brutal criticism from opposing fans and cut their teeth in the minor leagues. Almost all players who fail to respond in pressure situations have lost the battle before they reach the majors.

 

Last year, LaTroy Hawkins had several high profile blown saves. This year, he struggled early in the year, and lost his spot as the Cubs' closer. Many attribute these struggles to a lack of ability to adjust to the pressures of closing games. The problem with this argument many times is that analysts do not respond necessarily because they know the makeup of a pitcher, rather the fear of the unknown. Whenever a setup pitcher becomes a closer, the usual questions arise. Sometimes, these analysts use the setup man's blown saves to rationalize why he can not close. Let me assure you that save statistics for set-up men are worthless. They are not given the chance to close games, but if they lose a one run lead in the seventh, that counts as a blown save. There are likely some pitchers that can not close games. But if you have a set-up man who can strike out more than a batter an inning, let him prove that he can not close games before you write him off and trade for Antonio Alfonseca.

 

Third, the pressure cooker that is New York City. Why do some players perform poorly after arriving in New York to play for the Yankees? Several reasons apply. First, there is an adjustment period involved when moving into any new ballpark. Yankee Stadium has a few quirks including the right field porch, and death valley in left field. Second, many analysts fail to make the adjustment a player's statistics face when a player changes leagues and ballparks. Carl Pavano is a noteable example, as fans forget that a player of equal ability will post a lower ERA in Pro Player Stadium than in Yankee Stadium. Also, remember the Yankees tend to acquire players who have enjoyed career years, and are bound to decline. Again, a player who can not handle New York pressure may exist, but be aware of external factors.

 

Steve Blass Disease

 

In 1972, Steve Blass enjoyed the best year of his career. Blass compiled a 19-8 record along with a 2.49 ERA. The next year, Blass fell apart. Unable to locate his pitches, Blass walked 84 batters in 88 2/3 innings, while striking out just 27. Blass hit 12 batters, and was eventually demoted to the bullpen. Blass finished the year with a 9.85 ERA, and given nearly 89 innings to do so, ranks as the worst single-season pitching performance in the history of Major League Baseball.

 

Occasionally, this phenomenon rears its ugly head. Rick Ankiel lost his command in the 2000 postseason, and it never returned. Rob Bell of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays faces the same situation this season. To this date no one, whether analyst, psycologist or otherwise has been able to explain this problem or determine its root cause. Obviously, if pitchers can fall apart with little evidence of physical problems, then mental issues can plague even the best of pitchers. Its presence seems entirely random, so it is hard to assertain any solid information of the subject. Certainly, none of the afflicted pitchers know how to tame the beast.

 

Baseball Intelligence

 

Sometimes, a player comes along who is praised for doing things that will not show up on the stat sheet. While we sometimes scoff at these statements, remember that there are certain players with a particular abilty to take advantage if any possible advantage they can attain. Ozzie Guillen was such a player, who could take an extra base if an opposing player made the slightest mistake on the field. Placido Polanco has shown similar flashes of ability during the time he spent in Philadelphia. Statistics are an excellent method to evaluate players, but sometimes there are aspects of the game we need to view with our own eyes.

Definitely agree. I think a lot of people also underestimate the importance that changing leagues can cause. Just look at Pedro Martinez this year who's feasting on the NL.