Another loss dropped the Yankees to 37-37 on the season, a .500 record. Every team is average once in awhile, but for a team with a $200 Million payroll, an average season is an embarassment. Yankee fans want success, and to that end change may be necessary. So what can be done to fix this beleaguered franchise?

 

Many fans assume a problem with the Yankees is their offense. Surely Jason Giambi taking at bats and eating millions is a serious problem. While it is a problem, the Yankees have far worse issues than Giambi. Right now the Yankees rate second in the league in runs scored and twelveth in runs allowed. They are scoring enough runs to win. Jason Giambi has raised his average to .254, and his OBP is nearly .400. I am not so much of an OBP that I will deny Giambi is a problem player despite the OBP, but the point is a team can live with it for now.

 

The major problem with the offense is Tony Womack. Womack is playing what is traditionally a power hitter's position, hitting .240/.275/.264 in the process. Believe me, there are dozens of inexpensive corner outfielders who could hit better, and a few of them play in Columbus, the Yankees' AAA farm affiliate. Mitch Jones would hit .230 and strikeout maybe 175 times in a full season, but he would slug at least .450, more than Womack is contributing.

 

The big problem is the Yankees' pitching staff. Kevin Brown and Jaret Wright hit the disabled list, and Carl Pavano has been less than advertised. This came as a complete shock to everyone except those of us who read Baseball Prospectus. Sean Henn has bombed in the rotation and it is time to give another pitcher a shot. It is time the Yankees gave Alex Graman another shot. Graman is posting a fine strikeout rate at AAA Columbus, and he's a lefty as well. Is he the answer? I doubt it, but you never know, and it could not be worse than trotting out Sean Henn for another start.

 

The bullpen has struggled outside of Mariano Rivera, Tom Gordon and Tanyon Sturtze. The Yankees have an excellent minor league pitcher in their system named Colter Bean. Bean sports an amazing 11.5 K/9 ratio. Will those numbers translate to the majors? Having watched Bean live, I figure if Chad Bradford made it, there is no reason Colter Bean can not do so as well. Minor league hurler Wayne Franklin, a lefty, has pitched well in Columbus, and also deserves a fair shot.

 

The big problem with the Yankees is their defense. They lack a center fielder with range. Hideki Matsui is adequate, but when your left fielder is unfamiliar with his position, it makes for some long nights. Plus, Miracle Fielding Boy's defense is inadequate, Robinson Cano's defense was questionable through the minors, and Alex Rodriguez has lost a step at third base. The Yankees should explore adding a defensive player to their lineup at the expense of offense.

 

If I could do ONE thing to improve the Yankees (assuming I wanted to), I would trade for a good defensive center fielder. This would improve the defense and in turn the pitching, and allow Hideki Matsui to move back to left (benching Tony Womack in the process). Any other move the Yankees can make from within, but they MUST find a defensive player for center if they hope to make a run for the pennant.

The Yankee offense is fine. They did, of course, put 13 up in an inning (granted, it WAS the Devil Rays, but not many offenses can do that). Not only is Pavano not working out, Randy Johnson himself isn't really projecting an aura of a real "ace" and no one is really picking up the slack for him. Meanwhile, the Red Sox staff has put up SEVEN shutouts already, and we're not yet at the All-Star break.

 

I'm not sure if there's really anything major the Yankees can do this year to improve outside of going on a complete tear and winning 22 out of 24 or something. Honestly, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see them not crack 90 wins if this keeps up. The Red Sox are heating way up and Schilling's coming back, the O's should still be in the mix once they heal up, Toronto's not someone to push around with Halladay and a pretty decent young team, and we've seen how the Yankees have fared against Tampa Bay recently.

 

For the first time in a LONG time, the Yankees might have to fight for their berth in the postseason all the way to the wire.

Last year the Yankees' pythagorean record worked out to 89-73. Maybe the luck is coming back at them. I picked the Red Sox coming into this season because of that, and that pick is looking good at the moment. I think many people assume the Yankee magic will pick them up, but the truth is that 75% of this team is on the back side of their careers.

Good post, Al.

 

 

I believe that the Yankees can turn it around, but it won't happen this year. It just seems to me that this year's team is the kind of team that's real patchwork, as evident with them plugging Womack in the OF. That is obviously a problem, but the most glaring flaw with the Yankees will be with the pitching and defense. The pitching, as you guys have pointed out, isn't very strong, and in conjecture with a weak defense, this just spells disaster. On one hand it's amusing to see the Yankees not do well, on the other, it's getting to the point where watching them is pitiful. This is a team that has made the playoffs every year for a long while, and all of sudden they're in danger of missing out. What the Yankees should do is try to trade away Pavano and Henn for one serviceable starter, call up Graman as Al said, and see how that kind of rotation works. Randy Johnson is still too valuable to the club to just give up on. Granted he is probably going to keep declining but you're still guaranteed at least 10 wins with him, if not more. They also need to remove Womack and plug in a guy from AAA or find some way to move around guys. This is probably a good time for them to do so, because the current set isn't working.

One thing I wanted to add but forgot...

 

The Yankees should seriously consider a four-man rotation. They have a workhorse and pitching shortage. There has never been a better time.

Who would it be?

 

Johnson

Mussina

Pavano

Wang (with Wright taking over when he comes back?)

 

I wouldn't trust Brown with anything but spot starter right about now.

I'd give Bean and Graman a try before switching to a 4 man rotation.

I still don't get how RJ was going to turn this team into a WS contender. A guy, no matter how good, that can only play once every fifth day, isn't going to make so much of a difference. Even if Johnson was lights out, they would still have four games in between every start that was up in the air. Right now, Mussina's probably their number two guy, but he's so inconsistent.

 

No doubt their pitching isn't great, but it looks worse because there's such a shabby defense backing them. I look at St. Louis' pitching staff and perhaps even Boston's to an extent. Neither one looks amazing. They're all good, solid hurlers, but they appear to be even better because of the defense. This holds especially true with St. Louis, who are still one of the tightest defensive teams despite losing two gold glovers in the off-season.

 

I think if you tighten up the defense, you'll get better pitching results. George hasn't ever been one to look beyond the surface, so I doubt doing so is even a high priority. I don't care who you add in the rotation or pen, that defense is going to make them look worse than they actually are.

I'd give Bean and Graman a try before switching to a 4 man rotation.

Colter Bean is a great minor league pitcher, but he is NOT a starter.

Who would it be?

 

Johnson

Mussina

Pavano

Wang (with Wright taking over when he comes back?)

 

I wouldn't trust Brown with anything but spot starter right about now.

Just about. I would use Brown as part of the rotation, as I really do not think Wang or Wright are much better.

You know, it's amazing that the Yankess can play so mediocre and yet still manage to sweep the Cubs.

The 2005 Yankees are a perfect reason as to why don't really buy into the pythagorean record projections; the offense explodes at times and puts up double digit runs, but there are some games (such as the Royals series) where the team looks like it couldn't hit anybody. There's absolutely no consistency on this team.

 

And that's why I find it hard to really point to one place on the roster where a fix would turn around the team. There are holes everywhere and the Yankees don't have the cache of prospects or spare parts to deal for the fixes. Mark Kotsay could help a number of issues (defense in centerfield, high OBP at the top of the order, getting Womack out of the lineup), but their best prospect (Eric Duncan) doesn't really suit the A's, who already have Chavez at 3B. In short, I think there's no fixing the Yankees for this year.

 

There may be a shot for next year, though, if they can dump some of their veterans onto some other teams for prospects; use Gary Sheffield to hold up the Cubs for some major prospects, talk up Matsui as a buy-low candidate, anything to bring in some prospects with upside. So much of the team is untradeable, either due to monetary constraints or Yankee mystique and aura, that this is difficult, but I think it's the best - and only - thing that the Yankees can do.

This is what I don't get. They've got three great hitters in Jeter, Sheff, and A-Rod. They're all having All-Star seasons. Matsui could be a clean-up hitter for most teams. Posada, even in decline, is still a much better hitting catcher than most. So it boggles the mind that they could lose so many games. Pitching hurts, but it seems that this team struggles to score runs in a good share of their games. Why? Most teams can make it work with only a star or two, and a couple of good hitters. The Yankees have five guys in their starting lineup that could be All-Stars this season. Yet, they're so anemic at times. It doesn't compute.

Generally because the non-stars they have are REALLY bad. Almost every team in baseball has a better bench than what the Yankees are carrying.

Even the Royals, who have turned out some of the most historically bad groups of outfielders in modern baseball history, are throwing out a comparable trio to the Yankees:

 

LF:

Emil Brown: .291/.360/.468 (.829 OPS), 8 HRs

Hideki Matsui: .296/.364/.475 (.840 OPS), 9 HRs

 

CF:

David DeJesus: .278/.350/.395 (.745 OPS), 2 HRs

Bernie Williams: .249/.341/.367 (.708 OPS), 4 HRs

 

RF:

Matt Stairs: .259/.398/.470 (.868 OPS), 8 HRs

Gary Sheffield: .305/.401/.513 (.914 OPS), 13 HRs

 

Very, very comparable, especially when you consider the defensive capabilities of the KC outfield...and the fact that the edge that Sheffield has over Stairs is completely demolished by the at-bats given to that crafty hackmaster, Tony Womack:

 

Tony Womack: .241/.275/.265 (.541 OPS), 5 extra base hits

 

When Al says that Womack is quite possibly the worst outfielder in the history of baseball, his words don't even do it justice - Womack's .541 OPS is actually carried by a "hot" first month where the former Cardinal ripped off a .659 OPS (with a .330 OBP!). Since then, he's almost single-handedly killed the team, knocking off rallies left and right with the cold accuracy of a trained killer.

I'm still trying to figure out why Womack was so good last season.

D is for depth. D is for defense.

I'm still trying to figure out why Womack was so good last season.

Truthfully, he wasn't. The .307 average was fluky, but he never walked, and did not hit for any power. I probably wrote something over the offseason about the variances in batting average and if I didn't, I should have.

Maybe what the Yankees need is ownership that has patience so they aren't constantly raping their minor league system in favor of high-priced yet fragile free agents.

 

Steinbrenner needs to learn its okay to finish second once or twice if that's what it takes to allow your young talent to develop into a cohesive team unit.

Heck, even following the Braves model. They are the perfect example of how you can sustain a franchise long term with your farm system, replacing one player at a time. They STILL have the best prospects in the NL East.