I had a conversation with a friend the other day, and we wound up discussing Willie Mays. The subject of Candlestick Park came up, and the oft repeated story of how many home runs Mays lost due to the stadium he played in. Hundreds perhaps? Having Retrosheet at my disposal, I decided to check it out.

 

1958 and '59 are unavailable, but the rest of Mays' career is. If Candlestick Park hurt Mays' home run totals, certainly he would hit more home runs on the road. The results? Mays hit 8 MORE home runs in Candlestick Park than on the road, from 1960-72. When you consider that Mays played the first six years of his career at the Polo Grounds, which increased home run totals, I have to believe Mays barely lost any home runs due to his home parks.

There's a minor issue of causality here - could the 8 extra homers could be the result of an outstanding home/road split that, unchecked by Candlestick's spacious dimensions, might have normally accounted for 10-12 extra home runs per year? It's a very minor, though, and an interesting analysis of one of the greatest players ever.

That's true, and it is worth noting that Mays would play many games against the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium, and that would hurt his road totals. For what it is worth though, Willie McCovey sees the same phenomenon. McCovey hit 24 more home runs at Candlestick than on the road.

 

Looking at park factors, Candlestick generally played as a somewhat favorable park to pitchers, sometimes neutral from year to year. I doubt it deflated offense to the extent that people think. Mays still led the league in home runs three times. My theory is that offense was down all over the place in the 1960s, and many incorrectly placed the blame on the ballpark, rather than the difficult hitting conditions of the era.