Posted July 23, 200520 yr comment_2955103 PENGUINS WIN DRAFT DRAWING, OBTAIN FIRST PICK FOR 2005 ENTRY DRAFT The Pittsburgh Penguins won the National Hockey League Draft Drawing, held today following the League's Board of Governors meeting in New York, and obtained the first overall selection for the 2005 Entry Draft, to be held Saturday, July 30 (noon, ET) at the Westin Hotel in Ottawa. The Draft Drawing, a weighted lottery system, was used to determine the order of selection for all seven rounds of the Entry Draft. Under the weighted lottery system, the clubs that neither qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the 2001-02, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons, nor were awarded the first overall selection in each of the 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 Entry Drafts, had the greatest chance of receiving the first overall selection, 6.3 per cent. These clubs were the Penguins, Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Rangers. Ten clubs met one of the seven criteria listed above and had a 4.2% chance of winning the Drawing, while the remaining 16 clubs met more than one of the criteria and had a 2.1% chance. Forty-eight balls, numbered one through 48, were placed in a lottery machine. Three ball numbers were randomly assigned to each the Penguins, Sabres, Blue Jackets and Rangers; two ball numbers were assigned to the 10 clubs with a 4.2% chance; and one ball number was assigned to the 16 clubs with a 2.1% chance. The first ball expelled determined the winner of the first overall draft pick and it had been assigned to the Penguins. After the first overall selection was awarded, another ball was expelled to determine which club, from among the 29 remaining, received the second overall pick. This process was continued until each of the 30 first-round draft positions was assigned. PICKS IN SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS The order of selection for the second round of the Entry Draft will be inverse of the order of selection for the first round (i.e. the club that selected 30th overall in the first round will select first overall in the second round). The order of selection for the third round will be the same as the order of selection of the first round and the order of selection will alternate each round thereafter. Each club's overall draft pick positions will be determined next week, following the awarding of compensatory draft picks. First-Round Order of Selection 1. Pittsburgh Penguins 2. Mighty Ducks of Anaheim 3. Carolina Hurricanes 4. Minnesota Wild 5. Montreal Canadiens 6. Columbus Blue Jackets 7. Chicago Blackhawks 8. Atlanta Thrashers 9. Ottawa Senators 10. Vancouver Canucks 11. Los Angeles Kings 12. San Jose Sharks 13. Buffalo Sabres 14. Washington Capitals 15. New York Islanders 16. New York Rangers 17. Phoenix Coyotes 18. Nashville Predators 19. Detroit Red Wings 20. Philadelphia Flyers 21. Toronto Maple Leafs 22. Boston Bruins 23. New Jersey Devils 24. St. Louis Blues 25. Edmonton Oilers 26. Calgary Flames 27. Colorado Avalanche 28. Dallas Stars 29. Florida Panthers 30. Tampa Bay Lightning Oh man, all the news stations here are going nuts. New CBA + Crosby + Probable New Arena = Huge Increase in Pens Fans.
July 23, 200520 yr comment_2958970 Yeah, pretty much. The Penguins management would be drawn and quartered if they didn't take the hockey equivalent of Lebron James. I think this works out well for Crosby, Pittsburgh, and the NHL, though - the Penguins had the last great post-Gretzky ambassador for the sport in Lemieux, and is still recognizable from their success in the 90's.
July 23, 200520 yr comment_2959906 I'm glad he's going to a place like Pittsburgh that has been/can be a good hockey market, rather than a place where he'd be forgotten like Carolina. Phoenix might have been cool if Gretzky is going to coach there.
July 24, 200520 yr comment_2965211 Crosby also doesn't need to go to a team like the Rangers or Leafs: big market teams who'll still get huge crowds even after the lockout. Good for Sek and the Pens. To be honest, I can't think of another team that needs a potential draw like Crosby more. Maybe the Sabres.
July 24, 200520 yr comment_2966082 Another thing that strikes me about this is the method that the NHL used to determine the probabilities for each team in the lottery. The fact is, even though Pittsburgh had three times of a chance to get Crosby than the competing teams, their probability wasn't really remarkably better than those teams because the base probability they were multiplying was so small. Think about it, on the scale of 100 possible outcomes, how much more significant is it to have 3 chances than just one? Though you're tripling your chances, you're really only adding a two percent chance for the desired outcome. Contrast this with the NBA, where the seeding for the lottery is limited to non-playoff teams and then scaled up by the year's previous record. By limiting the amount of teams that could have received the #1 draft pick, they significantly reduced the average probability for any team to get that pick (since all of the playoff teams were sitting at 0%), while the scaling make it even more probable that the worst team in the league would get the first pick. Because their probability to get the number one pick wasn't appreciably higher than the average probability for any other team to get it, Pittsburgh's selection as the first team in the lottery was really quite a lucky pick.
July 24, 200520 yr comment_2966397 I remember reading that the teams with 3 balls had roughly a 6% to 7% chance of landing the number 1 pick. So, really it all comes down to luck as MIB said.
July 25, 200520 yr comment_2973266 MIB, a lot of that has to do with there being no NHL season last year. Normally, the NHL has a similar method to the lottery that the NBA does. I'm not sure of the comparison of odds, but normally, the lottery is limited to non-playoff teams. This made the battle to get Crosby a lot of fun, but don't expect that to happen every year.
July 25, 200520 yr Author comment_2974265 The Pens coach was on the radio this morning and dropped hints that one of the free agents they're looking at would be a veteran goalie to help along the herd of rookies the Pens have in the net. One of the hosts mentioned Khabibulin's name to fill that role and Olczyk delivered the worst non-denial denial I've ever heard.
July 26, 200520 yr comment_2979694 Another thing that strikes me about this is the method that the NHL used to determine the probabilities for each team in the lottery. The fact is, even though Pittsburgh had three times of a chance to get Crosby than the competing teams, their probability wasn't really remarkably better than those teams because the base probability they were multiplying was so small. Think about it, on the scale of 100 possible outcomes, how much more significant is it to have 3 chances than just one? Though you're tripling your chances, you're really only adding a two percent chance for the desired outcome. Contrast this with the NBA, where the seeding for the lottery is limited to non-playoff teams and then scaled up by the year's previous record. By limiting the amount of teams that could have received the #1 draft pick, they significantly reduced the average probability for any team to get that pick (since all of the playoff teams were sitting at 0%), while the scaling make it even more probable that the worst team in the league would get the first pick. Because their probability to get the number one pick wasn't appreciably higher than the average probability for any other team to get it, Pittsburgh's selection as the first team in the lottery was really quite a lucky pick. The NHL usually uses the same probability as the NBA, but because there was no season they brought out a way that every team did have a fair chance at winning. If there was a season Tampa Bay might have missed the playoffs and drew the number one pick (Champions have missed the playoffs before). So why should they be forced to sit in the back for two straight years? Also, with the new changes teams like Detroit and Colorado will lose a lot of their top talent due to the cap and the talent will be more spread out, so the strongest teams at the end of last year are not necessarily the strongest teams at the end of this year.
July 26, 200520 yr comment_2989541 Except for teams like the Flames and the Lightning, who both posess a strong core of young players. As an aside, the Flames got hoooosed.
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