About a week or two ago, I mentioned that the Orioles' second half collapse was nearly historic. This comment did not apply solely to its win/loss record as it did for the overall health and image of the franchise. Let's review for a moment. The Orioles spent much of the first half in the lead in the AL East. As of the All-Star break, the Orioles sat just two games out of the division lead behind the Red Sox. Since then, the season has been an utter disaster. The team is just 17-33 since the All-Star break, better than only the Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals. The Orioles rate 26th in the majors in ERA since the break, and 27th in runs scored. As of this writing, the O's sit 13.5 games out of the wild card lead.

 

Beyond the statistics, the team has suffered numerous embarassments from its players. Rafael Palmeiro collected his 3,000th career hit earlier this season. One day after the Hall of Fame ceremony however, Palmeiro was suspended ten days for steroid usage (presumably). Palmeiro's reputation has been destroyed, as the slugger maintains he has a good excuse buried somewhere in a sealed bank vault, while all circumstantial evidence indicates that he simply used steroids and was caught. Since the suspension, his ability has all but disappeared, as Palmeiro has hit just .256/.343/.395 since the All-Star break. The Orioles have removed Palmeiro from the starting lineup, and Palmeiro is currently rehabbing in Texas.

 

The Orioles' once-prized starter Sidney Ponson found himself in trouble with the law once again, this time for driving under the influence. Ponson also found himself arrested for DUI in January, and that came a month after punching a judge in Aruba. For all we know, he probably had something to do with Natalie Holloway as well. In any case, Ponson battled weight issues and pitched badly, and at some points his weight and ERA seemed locked in a dead-race to see what would finish higher. Ponson pitched badly before the break, compiling a 7-7 record with a 5.93 ERA. Incredibly he pitched worse after the break, posting an 0-4 mark with a 7.93 ERA. He will not be missed by Orioles fans.

 

Before the season, the Orioles took a shot at gathering some more offense for their club by trading Jerry Hairston and others for Sammy Sosa. Given their abundance in second basemen, it seemed like a good move. In terms of pure offense however, they would have been better of with Hairston. Sosa has hit a dismal .221/.295/.376, while Hairston has hit .261/.336/.374 for the Chicago Cubs. The Orioles hold a team option on Sosa for 2006, and easy money says the O's will elect to take the buyout.

 

Earlier this season, Brian Roberts looked like a new-found hitting monster. Roberts hit .345/.416/.591 in the first half, with 15 home runs and 18 stolen bases. Since then, Roberts has fallen to .266/.344/.392, in line with his career totals.

 

So what caused the collapse? In retrospect, the Orioles' first half run was likely unsustainable. But this was a club many pegged for a .500 record, or close to that mark. How could the team be this terrible? I hesitate to bring psycological matters into my analysis, but given the team's across the board plunge, this truly looks like a team that has given up on itself. What makes the collapse worse is that while the team fails, the nearby Nationals are winning fan interest with their wild card chase. If this continues, Peter Angelos' self-fufilling prophesies of attendance losses could come to fruition.

 

What lies ahead for the Orioles? Their pitching remains in shambles, particularly their starters. There is little available on the free agent market. Worse, the Orioles star closer, B.J. Ryan, is due for free agency. The team will need to replace Sosa and Palmeiro this offseason, and have other positional needs. There is little talent readily available in the farm system. Still, the situation is not entirely dire. The O's have a catcher who can hit (Javy Lopez), and one of baseball's best infields with Melvin Mora, Miguel Tejada and Brian Roberts.

 

Orioles fans may not like this, but Jay Gibbons' perceived value outweighs his real value. He doesn't walk much, he's 28, and you can find corner outfielders. He's trade bait. Sosa and Palmeiro are toast as well. There is no reason to bring back either player. What the Orioles can take comfort in is that their main needs are at the outfield corners and first base, where players are readily available. The starting pitching remains a problem, but the Orioles can improve by finding cheap, league-average replacements.

 

The Orioles have a good tradition and a fantastic ballpark in a great area of the city. Here's hoping they can turn it around.

One point of interest - Mazzilli's midseason firing. It was perceived, at the time, as a pre-emptive strike as the Orioles were starting to hit the skids. But, in retrospect, how much of it do you think had to do with Palmeiro's suspension and, also, how much do you think it affect Baltimore's second half performance?

Al, I realize the time lengths are different, but how would you compare the Orioles' collapse this year to the Phillies' in 1964 (from what you've read, of course)?

 

Great analysis, btw.

One point of interest - Mazzilli's midseason firing. It was perceived, at the time, as a pre-emptive strike as the Orioles were starting to hit the skids. But, in retrospect, how much of it do you think had to do with Palmeiro's suspension and, also, how much do you think it affect Baltimore's second half performance?

I forgot about Mazzilli's firing. Mazzilli did little to benefit the franchise, but his firing was probably a desperation move, and it hurt the team in my opinion. What good is removing the manager for the sake of removing the manager. It is not like the Orioles had an immensely qualified candidate ready to take his place.

 

Al, I realize the time lengths are different, but how would you compare the Orioles' collapse this year to the Phillies' in 1964 (from what you've read, of course)?

Good question. I think both are different scenarios. We had a feeling that the Orioles could reach the playoffs. Their good first half merely put them in contention. Their record alone is bad, but not historic. The '64 Phillies had the pennant in the bag. With twelve games to go, they held a 6.5 lead. To lose ten games in a row, seven at home, is entirely unfathomable even today.

 

The Orioles were a roughly average team that had a very bad second half. The Phillies were the ultimate "should have won it" team.

Outside of guys like Adam Loewen and Nick Markakis, what exactly does Baltimore have to offer for an available and productive 1B/DH/OF type via trade? Not saying that somebody like Lyle Overbay, to name a name, would be able to bring one or both in return. Also, how much of this blame can/ should be placed at the feet of the two-headed G.M., Jim Beattie and Mike Flannagan for not brining in an least league average pitching while the team was leading the division?

Outside of guys like Adam Loewen and Nick Markakis, what exactly does Baltimore have to offer for an available and productive 1B/DH/OF type via trade? Not saying that somebody like Lyle Overbay, to name a name, would be able to bring one or both in return. Also, how much of this blame can/ should be placed at the feet of the two-headed G.M., Jim Beattie and Mike Flannagan for not brining in an least league average pitching while the team was leading the division?

I am unsure of how much the Orioles can receive in trade. Outside of Jay Gibbons, their best trading chips in the majors are a few of their mid-level starters such as Bruce Chen and Rodrigo Lopez. In the minors they have some B-level pitching prospects like John Maine that might make attractive chips for teams looking for organizational depth.

 

The birds do have options on the free agency market. Guys like Kevin Millar, Rondell White, Matt Stairs, Richard Hidalgo, Todd Hollandsworth, Jeff Conine etc. can make nice fits at the right price and role (re: platoon). Also, bringing in Walter Young and giving him a righty bat to platoon at DH is a low-risk move that can buy big time dividends.

 

As for the second question, it is apparent that very little pitching was available in mid-season. I think many teams missed the boat on Shawn Chacon but besides him, I can't think of a single impact pitcher off-hand who changed teams this season. Acquiring pitchers like Ryan Drese, Chan Ho Park and Pedro Astacio is just re-arranging deck chairs in the end.