Currently the Phillies have two notable first basemen in their organization, Ryan Howard and Jim Thome. Jim Thome of course is the established veteran in decline, posting a dismal .207/.360/.352 mark in 56 games before missing the remainder of the season. Ryan Howard is the Phils' hot young rookie, posting a .289/.355/.549 line in 76 games so far.

 

Like all teams in this situation, the Phillies need to make a decision. In most cases the choice is clear, but there is a serious complication. Thome is owed $45.5 million over the next three seasons. The Phillies can not deal Thome unless they eat a significant portion of Thome's contract, or take on an albatross contract in return. The Phillies could likely not expect to get strong talent in return for Thome.

 

So the Phillies can do their best to dump Thome, or they can get creative. Here they have a prospect who exceeded expectations and could be valuable trade bait, and they have several holes to fill long term. The Phillies should trade Ryan Howard. Now, Thome may be a bust the next three years. In that scenario, the Phillies can look elsewhere for a stop-gap solution at first base. It is a relatively easy position to fill.

 

Frankly, Howard is a good hitter, but he is somewhat overrated. Howard has struck out 90 times in 266 at bats. Give him a full season of at bats at that rate, and he can give the season strikeout record a run for its money. Moreover, Howard has not shown an ability to hit lefties at the major league level. Right now, Howard's perceived value may be higher than his actual value. In trading Howard, the Phillies can look for solutions at either third base or catcher. David Bell and Mike Lieberthal are free agents after next season, and the organization lacks prospects at either position. In return for Howard, it is not unreasonable to think the Phillies could grab a decent prospect at either position.

 

Looking ahead at next season, the Phillies could do well to find a righty platoon partner for Thome. Val Pascucci is a player who could serve well to crush lefties, and serve as a powerful bench bat, something the Phillies have lacked this season. If Pascucci is unavailable, there are several other options, if one cares to sift through the available talent.

 

Ultimately, the Phillies need to play this smart, and I think if they do, they can turn this problem into an advantage.

I'm on board for sticking with Thome and trying to find a platoon partner to spell him throughout the season, but I'm not sure that Howard is as tradeable as you think; a 25/2 K/BB ratio in 50 at bats (that's virtually a strikeout every other plate appearance) screams "platoon partner", so much in fact that I think other teams might not perceive his value to be as high as you're imagining. Also, the 91/28 MLB K/BB rate, the fact that Howard's a little old to be a prospect (25 years old), and mediocre walk rates throughout his minor league career doesn't bode well for his future.

I'm sure one of the New York teams would gladly trade for him during the offseason. The Mets are always after overpriced aging talent and the Yankees will be making a ton of moves if they miss the playoffs.

I'm on board for sticking with Thome and trying to find a platoon partner to spell him throughout the season, but I'm not sure that Howard is as tradeable as you think; a 25/2 K/BB ratio in 50 at bats (that's virtually a strikeout every other plate appearance) screams "platoon partner", so much in fact that I think other teams might not perceive his value to be as high as you're imagining.  Also, the 91/28 MLB K/BB rate, the fact that Howard's a little old to be a prospect (25 years old), and mediocre walk rates throughout his minor league career doesn't bode well for his future.

I get the feeling I'll be alternatively defending and trashing Ryan Howard throughout this topic. I think Howard can learn to hit lefties in the majors given more time. Remember it is only 50 at bats. Looking at my personal minor league statistics, I have Howard going 5 for 13 against lefties, with six walks and a home run. That again is a small sample. His walk rates meanwhile are not spectacular, but they are acceptable.

 

As for the rest of it, having seen the players getting big contracts lately, I have no doubt some team will overrate Ryan Howard. Really, it only takes one.

I like the idea of filling multiple holes over filling one. Howard's stock is high right now, so you could probably get some good coverage in return for him. And while Thome is declining, I somewhat doubt that he'll be this bad next season. They aren't going to be able to unload Thome's contract, so it's futile to have two guys who can't play another position on the same team. Cash in the Howard chips now.

The thing w/ the Phillies is that they are set up (IMO) to win in the next couple seasons. Unless they can get some legit major league starters for Howard, I'm reluctant to trade him for prospects. I'd much rather the Phillies shop Thome 1st to see what kind of interest is out there, even if they have to bite the bullet and eat a significant portion of his salary.

 

Personally, I think Thome may be on the down slope of his career. Whether he's broken down, or just getting old, I don't think he's going to get back to being a 40+ HR guy, which is what I think Howard can be given an entire season as a starter. I don't want to dump Howard, and see Thome come out next year performing like he did this year, which is my fear if they do trade Howard.

As for the rest of it, having seen the players getting big contracts lately, I have no doubt some team will overrate Ryan Howard.  Really, it only takes one.

Maybe Ed Wade could enroll Ryan Howard into a six week spanish course and buy him a sombrero large enough to cover his face.

 

Large black man wearing sombrero: "Hola, Se?or Moreno. ?C?mo est?s?"

 

Se?or Moreno: "?Muy bien, gracias! ?Amo a jugadores del b?isbol del latino!"

The thing w/ the Phillies is that they are set up (IMO) to win in the next couple seasons. Unless they can get some legit major league starters for Howard, I'm reluctant to trade him for prospects. I'd much rather the Phillies shop Thome 1st to see what kind of interest is out there, even if they have to bite the bullet and eat a significant portion of his salary.

Chase Utley will not reach free agency until 2009. We have Jimmy Rollins through 2010, Pat Burrell through 2008, Abreu through 2008, and Brett Myers through 2008. That's quite a respectable core for the next three years at least. Beyond that, any team worth their salt can plan further ahead. And I'm not talking of trading Howard for an A-ball prospect. I'm looking at trading him for another team's blocked prospect, such as Kelly Shoppach or Eric Duncan.

 

Personally, I think Thome may be on the down slope of his career. Whether he's broken down, or just getting old, I don't think he's going to get back to being a 40+ HR guy, which is what I think Howard can be given an entire season as a starter. I don't want to dump Howard, and see Thome come out next year performing like he did this year, which is my fear if they do trade Howard.

Thome is certainly on the downside of his career. There is some risk involved with Thome. He may indeed be finished. On the other hand, he could pull a Giambi-like comeback next season. Given Thome's plate discipline, I would not count him out.