Welcome to the first of my free agency preview threads. Rather than be comprehensive, I figured I'd give a brief overview. I'm dividing these into four parts. The "name" is the player who has accumulated the most career win shares, regardless of current talent. The "best" player is simply the best player on the market. The "bargain" is the player I feel is undervalued and could surprise people. The "bust" is the overrated player teams should exercise caution with.

 

The "name": Mike Piazza. Piazza enters free agency after 7 1/2 seasons with the Mets. Piazza has established himself as the greatest offensive catcher in the history of baseball. However, age has caught up with him. Piazza turned 37 this season and frankly, it is a testiment to his talent that he has maintained the production he has. Johnny Bench was retired by this time. Piazza needs to move to a team that will not require his services beyond the plate for an extended period of time. An American League team weak at catcher with an additional opening for a designated hitter is ideal. The Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, and Texas Rangers seem like good fits.

 

The best player: Bengie Molina. I am not tremendously confident about this pick, but Molina had the most win shares over the last one, two and three seasons. Molina's defensive capabilities are unquestioned. This year Molina posted his best hitting season of his career. However, Molina is 30, walks about once or twice a month, and is quite slow. The big question is whether the Angels decide to pass and give the job to prospect Jeff Mathis (.276/.340/.499 at AAA).

 

The Bargain: Todd Pratt. Pratt is just a backup, but he provides good hitting and veteran presence.

 

The Bust: Brad Ausmus. Quite frankly, I think he's one of the worst regulars in baseball. This year he posted a higher than usual OBP, but that comes with a caveat. Players typically see a boost in their walk rates as they age, simply because they can't swing a bat like they used to. How long are you going to trust a 37 year old catcher to produce? The Padres are often seen as a fit, but they have George Kottaras in AA, who is fast climbing the prospect lists. I think the Astros will retain Ausmus's services.

 

Besides the aforementioned three, Ramon Hernandez is the other starter on the market. Hernandez is an underrated player and probably the best player on the market, but he's missed significant time the last two years. A catcher is a bad person to be injury prone. Over the offseason we may see some musical catchers between the Astros, Padres, Angels and Mets. I'm guessing Hernandez to the Mets, Ausmus to the Astros, and Molina's a wild card. The Padres and Angels should look towards internal improvements. Also keep an eye on Johnny Estrada, who the Braves will almost certainly look to trade.

The Mets (and maybe even the Yankees, if the Posada rumors are true) are in the market for Molina, so I imagine that the Angels will be priced out of their range, especially considering that they're targeting Konerko for some bizarre reason.

 

And, while we're talking about catchers, let me throw down a couple of mystery lines for you.

 

.165/.206/.252

.251/.355/.373

 

Okay - which one is Gregg Zaun and which one is John Flaherty? Take a wild guess.

Of course the worse line is John Flaherty, but of what significance is it?

 

One name I neglected is Japanese catcher Kenji Jojima. Jojima is a legit power bat behind the plate, and is just 29. He'd be the guy to get, except that as a Japanese native speaker, his intangible qualities may be an issue. Still a definate guy to keep an eye on, as some team will likely take the plunge.

Al, do you really think that Seatle is a good fit for an aging power hitter like Piazza? That park will not help him very much. Toronto and Texas on the other hand would be perfect parks for him.

Al, do you really think that Seatle is a good fit for an aging power hitter like Piazza?  That park will not help him very much.  Toronto and Texas on the other hand would be perfect parks for him.

Certainly. What you have to remember is that production exists in a team context. If Piazza's averages suffer, it is not so bad to an extent when you realize that it takes less runs to win a game in Safeco Field. Besides, Piazza was such a powerful hitter that few parks could hold him in his heyday. Safeco isn't all that tougher than Shea Stadium honestly. And at this point in Piazza's career, the most important aspect is finding an opportunity.

How would you compare last year's group of free agent catchers to this one, in terms of quality and value? Would a Varitek - Piazza comparison be fair or would it be an apples to oranges type thing?

How would you compare last year's group of free agent catchers to this one, in terms of quality and value?  Would a Varitek - Piazza comparison be fair or would it be an apples to oranges type thing?

Apples and oranges. Varitek was 32 last year, Piazza's 36. While Varitek can still catch every day, there are serious questions about how much Piazza has left in the tank.

Safeco isn't all that tougher than Shea Stadium honestly.  And at this point in Piazza's career, the most important aspect is finding an opportunity.

Just a note about the Mariners' woes behind the plate: the Tacoma News Tribune had reported that Seattle was close to signing Jojima for 2/8 with an option for a third. The agent, of course, vehemently denied this, which means we'll get a press conference on Tuesday or Wednesday for the formal announcement of the signing.

 

I think I said it in another thread, but I think Piazza is going to end up in Los Angeles, either as an stopgap for the Angels before they promote Jeff Mathis to the show full-time, or as a Dodger to bring in some good PR.