After 17 years, the gig is finally up for Tom Glavine. Hitters are more patient these days, and don't get themselves out anymore. That was Glavine MO, to rely on the impatience of hitters and have them get themselves out. Doesn't work into today's game. The League has finally figured him out. It's over Tommy. The guy has about 15 walks in 20 some odd innings and his WHIP must be awful. It's sad to see a once great pitcher pitch this poorly. It's like watching Rich Little or Fred Travolina trying to be funny in the today's sea full of fresh new comics. The game has passed him by.

I don't think it's so much as hitters have Glavine figured out as much as the umpires have been much less charitable with their strike zone when he pitches. It's completely speculative and anecdotal, but most people recall Glavine getting the "Greg Maddux strike zone" during his years in Atlanta and if that's hypothetically revoked from Glavine, who lives and dies on the corners, it makes sense that he'd start to get pounded.

 

It's not as bad as it seems, though - Glavine has always historically pitched poorly against Atlanta since he left the team a couple of years ago. He did fairly well last year until the car crash kind of derailed him in the second half. I'd expect him a rebound, though I doubt he'll ever return to a level of dominance like he had enjoyed during the prime of his career.

I think we can agree that Shea becoming a QuesTec park really signaled the end of Glavine's effectiveness as an ace.

What's funny about that is that, after a bizarre 2003 where Glavine's home splits were significantly worse than his road splits (which prompted a lot of the Questec "controversy"), Glavine shaved almost a point and a half off of his ERA in Shea last year:

 

Glavine's 2004 Road ERA: 4.12

Glavine's 2004 Home ERA: 2.84

I think that was due to the improved defense. Mike Cameron helped the Mets more than anyone realizes.

As a Met fan, I wholeheartedly support getting rid of Glavine. He is nowhere near as good as he used to be, and he'll never get back to that level again. Cut your losses before they really bite you in the ass as the season progresses.

As a Met fan, I wholeheartedly support getting rid of Glavine.  He is nowhere near as good as he used to be, and he'll never get back to that level again.  Cut your losses before they really bite you in the ass as the season progresses.

Is it really wise to cut a pitcher after essentially one bad outing, particularly considering the quality of the replacements available? Especially when that outing came against a team Glavine is 1-7 lifetime against.

From what I've seen, the guy has pitched one really good game and had a solid no decision against Houston. Besides that, he hasn't dont much of anything. After a quick stat check, the guys ERA is through the roof, currently sitting at 5.67. He got knocked out of the Reds game before the 4th inning, allowing 9 runs. Then you also have that Atlanta game. The guy is nowhere near what he used to be. I think as the season goes on, he's just gonna keep on choking.

From what I've seen, the guy has pitched one really good game and had a solid no decision against Houston.  Besides that, he hasn't dont much of anything.  After a quick stat check, the guys ERA is through the roof, currently sitting at 5.67.  He got knocked out of the Reds game before the 4th inning, allowing 9 runs.  Then you also have that Atlanta game.  The guy is nowhere near what he used to be.  I think as the season goes on, he's just gonna keep on choking.

Take away those two games, and his ERA in the other three is 2.37. All three of those were quality starts (3 ER or less and 6 IP or more). Now, I know he is not the pitcher he used to be, and the end is sooner, rather than later. However, you are talking about a pitcher with a proven track record. His ratios are down, but when your team has two guys that are WORSE (Kaz Ishii and Victor Zambrano), I would hardly look for the axe to fall on Glavine first.

 

And while I'm on the subject of the Mets, Jose Reyes has yet to draw a walk in 101 at bats. Surprisingly, he has stopped being productive, as his batting average AND On Base Percentage have fallen to .267. If Reyes can not learn to take a pitch, the Mets need to send him back to AAA to learn how.

Al, they should send him down, but they never will.

 

Glavine walks the ballpark now, it's clear he is deathly afraid to throw the ball over the plate because he knows he's going to get killed. Ishii and Zambrano are worse, but they don't seem to know where the ball is going because their stuff is so electric. Glavine knows what he's doing, he's pitching afraid

I think that was due to the improved defense.  Mike Cameron helped the Mets more than anyone realizes.

Here's some statistical quirks for you:

 

G/F

2004: 1.40

2005: 1.68

 

Triples

2004: 10

2005: 3

 

And Reyes is terrible, but he's been marketed as one of the future cogs of the franchise, despite the fact that he's never really been able to handle major league pitching with any consistency. He's going nowhere.

Watching Reyes at the plate is a like watching train wreck about to happen. As soon as he falls behind in the count, they throw him one of those sinkers, and he swings and misses practically every time.

His ratios are down, but when your team has two guys that are WORSE (Kaz Ishii and Victor Zambrano), I would hardly look for the axe to fall on Glavine first.

I didn't say Glavine should be the only one to go. Zambrano ought to hit the bricks too, or at least head down to AAA until he stops hitting a batter every other inning.

Why would the Mets trade for Zambrano? He perenially leads the lead in BBs and now pitches in a Questec park, why the fuck would they trade a talent like Kazmir for this clown.

 

I will admit to having a personal stake in this as Kazmir owns the Sox.

Why would the Mets trade for Zambrano?  He perenially leads the lead in BBs and now pitches in a Questec park, why the fuck would they trade a talent like Kazmir for this clown.

 

I will admit to having a personal stake in this as Kazmir owns the Sox.

Because 7 games out of the wild card represents a win now mode. The way I've interpreted things, Al Leiter and others felt their careers were winding down, and they want to make a run for a ring. Rather than politely dismissing them, the Mets' GM gave in, and they got this mess.

Glavine's line from tonight:

 

NY Mets	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA

Glavine	3.2	6	8	7	6	1	1	7.0

 

Six walks to a strikeout is not so great, though it doesn't really prove anything that we don't already know - Glavine, being the finesse pitcher that he is, is going to get shelled on any start where he doesn't have his command.

 

This holds especially true when said start is against the Phillies, who are one of the more patient teams out there. (At least from my personal observation - can anybody get a pitches per plate appearance number for the team to verify?)

Glavine is now 2-18 vs. the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins since joining the Mets

This holds especially true when said start is against the Phillies, who are one of the more patient teams out there. (At least from my personal observation - can anybody get a pitches per plate appearance number for the team to verify?)

Abreu of course is one of the more patient hitters in baseball. Thome sees alot of pitches, but he was not in the game tonight.

 

We actually do have the statistics handy. Last year, the Phillies ranked fifth in pitches per plate appearance, behind Boston, Oakland, Milwaukee and Cincinnati. The Phillies rated first in 2003, and second in 2002. This year they rank 15th, but it is too early to judge. So yes, your observation holds up under evidence.