With the White Sox getting off to a great start, the talking heads in the baseball media are already praising Ozzie Guillen for playing "small ball" and winning with it. I've heard several commentators say stuff like "see, we told you, this is winning baseball, advancing runners, stealing bases, and putting pressure on the defense," and "To hell with Moneyball, this is how the game was meant to be played" On the Mets/Brewers game today, the announcers were saying that Guillen wanted to get rid of Carlos Lee because he "didn't try hard enough to break up double plays" (I'm not making that up, that is apparently one of the reasons he was traded) Guillen has also gone on record ripping Magglio Ordonez and others for being too "soft". He definitely seems to be an old school type manager that puts toughness and agression over talent.

 

Assuming that their pitching comes back to the Earth, can the Sox win with this style of play and this type of manager? I'm not a fan of small ball and I really don't understand why an American league team would ever play that style, but it has been successful so far. I have to believe that the team's tendency to give up too many out will come back to haunt them. Are the Sox for real or will they come crashing back to reality?

No team can stay on the pace the Sox are forever. I'm betting once they hit an extended losing streak, there's going to be less patience in the clubhouse for Guillen's antics.

On the Mets/Brewers game today, the announcers were saying that Guillen wanted to get rid of Carlos Lee because he "didn't try hard enough to break up double plays"

Tell Todd Walker that.

 

And as much fun as it must be to be a White Sox fan right now, even they have to know this can't keep up. Their pitching has been keeping them on the roll, but I doubt it remains that way. One also has to look at their schedule so far. The White Sox are a legit good team, but playing squads like the Royals, Indians, and Tigers for the majority of your games will pad your W/L record.

 

A lot of people are also overlooking how the White Sox always get off to hot starts. This year's is exceptionally good, but it's been the late summer months that have always been reserved for the unraveling of the Southsiders.

The White Sox started out like this a few years ago, they limoed into the playoffs and the were wiped out pretty quickly.

 

The last 3 WS champs played Moneyball, small ball, and smoke and mirrors respectively. There is no definative best way to play the game other than hard and with great pitching. All three of those teams had the pitching.

 

If your team is not built to play Moneyball then you do what you have to do, if that is stealing bases and bunting then so be it. This is more of an example of a team playing above it's head than great managing. Mangers are only great when they win. A few years ago Tony Pena was lauded as great, I seldom hear his name mentioned now because his team sucks. Ozzie was not great last year, he's not great this year, his team is better.

Assuming that their pitching comes back to the Earth, can the Sox win with this style of play and this type of manager? I'm not a fan of small ball and I really don't understand why an American league team would ever play that style, but it has been successful so far. I have to believe that the team's tendency to give up too many out will come back to haunt them. Are the Sox for real or will they come crashing back to reality?

Oh absolutely they can win with this style of play. Gene Mauch won many division titles with small ball, and Tony LaRussa has utilized the strategy to great success. There is more than one way to skin a cat, or win baseball games, in this case.

 

What goes unspoken, however, is that the Sox are currently sixth in runs scored, and first in runs allowed. They are winning games because their pitching has been extraordinarily effective at this point. However, their peripheral statistics are not particularly impressive, and their ERAs are almost certainly unsustainable. It remains to be seen what will happen when the magic falls off of the pitching staff.

 

No matter what you say to diminish the Sox, 24-7 is 24-7. They have a 4.5 game lead over the Twins, and if you spotted the Sox those odds at the start of the season, it would be a difficult pick. The Sox can win this division, and they are serious contenders. And if Frank Thomas makes it back, the offense can produce.

 

Still, no matter how analysts may downplay it, OBP is absolutely the most important component to offense. OBP is not a silly momeyball idea, it is the BASIC success/failure measurement in baseball. Teams that produce more baserunners and create less outs will score more runs. The antics a team utilizes on the basepaths will only have a minimal effect after that point.

 

On a larger scale, I am very tired of analysts who are so overblown on bashing Moneyball that they completely miss the point. Instead of reminding the fans that they should not overlook the little things, they try to convince them that it IS the little things that win baseball games. And n the process, they have made Baseball Tonight (for example) completely unwatchable. Joe Morgan constantly bitches about Moneyball, but he NEVER actually read the book.

 

It is bothersome that instead of helping fans decifer and understand new knowledge and statistics, television analysts reject them or worse, misuse them. A pitcher who gives up many home runs is moving to a pitchers' park, and should improve. That kind of simple analysis is lost, but a pitcher with many saves and little else is worshipped because well, we all know saves, right?

 

A knowledge of equivalent average, VORP, and Total Player Average is not necessary to understand the game. But knowledge such as the importance of the ball/strike count and park factors are rarely discussed by modern analysts.

 

Sorry for the rant, but this seemed as good a time as any.

I can't really add much to Al's commentary, but here's a couple of other things to note about the White Sox.

 

Eighteen of their twenty-four wins have come against the AL Central. They're 6-0 against Kansas City, 4-1 against Detroit, and 4-1 against a Cleveland team that is playing as poorly as that team could possibly play.

 

Meanwhile, they're 3-3 against the AL West, with two of those wins coming against, arguably, the weakest team of the division in the Seattle Mariners.

 

Scott Podsednik, the acquisition that was most symbolic of Chicago's change in philosophy, has drawn 18 walks to 9 strikeouts so far this year. Podsednik has never had more 60 walks in an entire season before this year.

Even though they were beating the Jays this past weekend, I still had a fun time watching them play. I think the fact that they're always a threat to steal is a big distraction to the pitcher, so that helps them out a lot. I doubt they keep up this pace, but I'd be surprised if they completely tanked, too.

 

And funnily enough, Joe Morgan was talking about OBP on Sunday Night Baseball last night. I almost pinched myself.

The Podsednik acquisition is certainly fitting like a glove with the team's new strategy. Four stolen bases the other day was just ridiculous. He creates scoring chances by getting on and moving around on the basepaths. Stolen bases are absolutely worthless unless the guys at the dish can drive you in. That's been the difference. The guys behind Podsedsnik have been able to drive him in more times than not. He had a ludicrous number of SB's last season but playing for the Brewers, one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, they were usually meaningless.

I think it's best to wait and see with the Sox. They completely fizzled out after the All Star Break last year and Scott Podsednik did as well. I think the Minnesota Twins will win the division again this year.

Podsednik has a .369 OBP at the moment which isn't that amazing since he put up a .379 OBP in 2003 mainly thanks to a .314 BA but still...

 

Surprisingly, his SLG is only .283 and should even out to his career .392, maybe not that high but it should come around sooner rather than later.

 

The Sox pitching has been carrying them, period. Their lowest 3 ERAs? 7.36 by Luis Vizcaino, 6.23 by Shingo Takatsu, and 3.78 by Mark Buehrle. As a team they have a 3.04 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .228 opponent BA.

 

Interesting to note that they have a 194 K to 94 BB (2.06:1) ratio in 281.1 IP. That comes out to 6.90 K/9 which isn't that great. That will likely catch up to them as their hits per IP should rise from the 0.84 that they currently have.

 

They've also given up on average 3.29 R/G and scored 4.68. Given the home park, I'd expect the opponents R/G to rise to around 4.00 and the White Sox to lower to around 4.10-4.20.

 

At home, they've scored 3.93 R/G while allowing 3.00 R/G in 14 contests. On the road, they've scored 5.29 R/G while allowing 3.53 R/G in 17 contests.

 

I expect the White Sox to start regressing in late May/early June and the Twins will manage to push ahead. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians come back and turn this into a three horse race by season's end.

The Podsednik acquisition is certainly fitting like a glove with the team's new strategy.  Four stolen bases the other day was just ridiculous.  He creates scoring chances by getting on and moving around on the basepaths.  Stolen bases are absolutely worthless unless the guys at the dish can drive you in.  That's been the difference.  The guys behind Podsedsnik have been able to drive him in more times than not.  He had a ludicrous number of SB's last season but playing for the Brewers, one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, they were usually meaningless.

I wouldn't say that they are completely useless. At the very least they disrupt the pitcher and the infield defense and can aid in scoring runs on that basis alone. However, if the team can't cash the guys in they are rather pointless.

 

I only advocate stealing bases when the runer is capable or good at delayed steals, like Varitek is or only runs when no one is paying attention. Manny has stolen third a few times in the last couple of years because the pitcher isn't looking and the catcher isn't expecting him to go. You have to pick your spots in other words.