1) Is Brian Roberts going to be as good as his stats this year indicate? By that, I mean, will he be getting it done on all the stats.

In retrospect, this is not the surprise it may seem. Roberts hit 50 doubles last season, third in the majors. As young hitters develop power, doubles tend to turn into home runs. Roberts will regress of course, but the improvement is real, and I feel he is legitimately the best second baseman in the American League.

 

2) Do the Jays currently have the tools necessary (minus a prime star taht is needed) to make a run at a World Series? If not, what do they then need to do to make it happen?

Not quite. They need bullpen depth, and a few more solid starters. They need their prospects to develop.

 

Who's your AL and NL MVP's right now, Al?

If the season ended this instant, Brian Roberts in the AL, and Bobby Abreu in the NL. I could make an argument for Derrek Lee (it's very very close), but what the heck, I'm taking my boy.

 

Peter Gammons hinted in his latest article on ESPN that if the Phillies continue to freefall, they would probably be moving Billy Wagner, due to his upcoming free agency. Do you feel that the Cubs (being the most need of closer help) can make a run at him with thier deep farm system?

Two schools of thought.

 

1. Yes, if the Phillies are out of the race, the Cubs are a perfect fit.

 

2. No, Ed Wade would NEVER trade a player at the peak of his value. Generally Wade waits until he can only get crap in return, and waits two more months.

1) If the Jays are in the running for the Wild Card or, God help us all if this happens, they are in the hunt for the AL East lead, which starting pitcher/bullpen should they go after? And can they actually obtain anyone?

 

2) Why has Tino Martinez suddenly come to life and hitting the ball like the last time he could do that? Odd for him to be crushing the ball like he just can't get enough of the homers.

1) If the Jays are in the running for the Wild Card or, God help us all if this happens, they are in the hunt for the AL East lead, which starting pitcher/bullpen should they go after? And can they actually obtain anyone?

Honestly, I can't think of anyone, unless Mike Piazza is available.

 

2) Why has Tino Martinez suddenly come to life and hitting the ball like the last time he could do that? Odd for him to be crushing the ball like he just can't get enough of the homers.

I just chalk that up to weird things happening each year.

The A's have gotten off to such a terrible start that expecting a turnaround like they traditionally have mid-season may not be realistic. Do you think Dotel gets moved by the deadline, and if so, to what team?

The A's have gotten off to such a terrible start that expecting a turnaround like they traditionally have mid-season may not be realistic.  Do you think Dotel gets moved by the deadline, and if so, to what team?

If Dotel gets moved, I can't help but think the Braves, Marlins and Mets would be the strongest candidates. All have uncertainty in their bullpen, and look to be in a tight pennant race.

I'm liking this thread.

 

1) Although it's tough to count on a team this early in the going, what teams would you say are already done or have little chance of making the postseason outside of the usual candidates?

2) Is Jason Giambi done?

3) Is the absence of Alou and Sosa really hurt the Cubs that much or are the sports writers just looking at the surface of the matter? If they were still members of the Cubs, would the team be in the same position they are now?

4) Was Joe Nathan always this good or did he only become dominant once shipped to Minnesota? It seems that the Giants would've been fools to trade a guy that could've been their closer when that's been a role that's been such a disaster for them the last two years.

5) Would you say Aramis Ramirez' groin and back issues are a result of him not being the best physical shape or just bad luck?

6) Why is Derrek Lee hitting so superbly right now? He's always been a streaky hitter, but the good and bad snaps usually don't last this long. Has he turned a corner as a hitter or can we expect a complete regression to his career numbers?

1) Although it's tough to count on a team this early in the going, what teams would you say are already done or have little chance of making the postseason outside of the usual candidates?

 

Right now, Tampa Bay and Kansas City are the only two teams I would count out entirely. Even Colorado is better than their record indicates.

 

2) Is Jason Giambi done?

 

Yes. I have commented on other boards (TSM) that Giambi is still a decent hitter, thanks to his high OBP. While that OBP is good, there is a catch. Hitters sometimes see a spike in their walk rate as they age, not because they become more disciplined, but because they can not hit a baseball like they used to, and it is compensation.

 

Looking at Giambi's comparables list, it is not promising. Five players lasted two years or less. Three (Jim Edmonds, Tino Martinez and Ryan Klesko) are still active, and that leaves Fred McGriff and Ted Kluszewski. Kluszewski hit the league average, hit 24 home runs, and lasted three years. Only Fred McGriff had a substantial career after 33, and he is last on the list.

 

3) Is the absence of Alou and Sosa really hurt the Cubs that much or are the sports writers just looking at the surface of the matter? If they were still members of the Cubs, would the team be in the same position they are now?

 

Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou have 14.6 runs created apiece. Jeromy Burnitz has 23.7, and Todd Hollandsworth has 8.3. Both Alou and Sosa have had injury problems of their own, so I don't think keeping them would have helped.

 

The real problem is obvious. Nomar Garciaparra, Todd Walker, and Kerry Wood have missed significant time. Dusty Baker has used Todd Hollandsworth over Jason DuBois, and Hollandsworth has been entirely unproductive. The offense is being carried by Derrek Lee. The Cubs need hitting help, but I would worry that fans obsess instead with acquiring a "proven closer." The Cubs are 5th in runs allowed, but a dismal 13th in runs scored.

 

4) Was Joe Nathan always this good or did he only become dominant once shipped to Minnesota? It seems that the Giants would've been fools to trade a guy that could've been their closer when that's been a role that's been such a disaster for them the last two years.

 

Quite honestly, I saw no indication Nathan was this good when he was traded. His strikeout rate took a leap in 2003, and many were skeptical that it was a fluke. Instead, he halved his home run rate, and continued to cut his walk rate. When we know now but didn't know then was that a change from starter to closer was just what he needed, particularly after shoulder surgery. This is another example in the Gagne mold, in that failed starters can become elite relievers.

 

5) Would you say Aramis Ramirez' groin and back issues are a result of him not being the best physical shape or just bad luck?

 

Being just an outsider, I am not close enough to Ramirez's medical condition to make an informed comment.

 

6) Why is Derrek Lee hitting so superbly right now? He's always been a streaky hitter, but the good and bad snaps usually don't last this long. Has he turned a corner as a hitter or can we expect a complete regression to his career numbers?

 

A complete regression still makes Lee a very dangerous hitter. He could easily top a .400 OBP this season.

1) Even though this is a rumor, consider Bonds having an infection. Would that then suggest he's pretty much done this season? Or pretty much done period?

 

2) How does the Cardinals pitching staff keep being good. Just cause sometimes a team will have an off period for its staff (Yankees) or a really good start (CWS), but the Cardinals keep it together.

 

3) Justin Morneau is only 24 years old but hitting like he's been around the league for quite a few years longer. Is it just luck, or will Morneau turn into an elite hitter?

 

Sorry if these are simple questions to know, but being a sophomore with watching baseball (and currently seeing a few, if any games due to schedule) I've got no ideas about this.

1) Even though this is a rumor, consider Bonds having an infection. Would that then suggest he's pretty much done this season? Or pretty much done period?

 

Possibly. A player missing half a season at least at age 40 is never a good sign.

 

2) How does the Cardinals pitching staff keep being good. Just cause sometimes a team will have an off period for its staff (Yankees) or a really good start (CWS), but the Cardinals keep it together.

I would credit a solid defense. Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and company are some of the best fielders in baseball. Note that the Yankees defense is quite questionable.

 

3) Justin Morneau is only 24 years old but hitting like he's been around the league for quite a few years longer. Is it just luck, or will Morneau turn into an elite hitter?

Morneau IS an elite hitter. He smashed 41 home runs last year between the Majors and AAA. Keep an eye on Morneau. He's going to garner his share of All-Star selections before he is through.

1) Why is Mark Grudzielanuk suddenly looking like he can hit again? He was good for the Cubs in '03, but more of a liability in his brief '04 season. Has he really done that much better or am I just turning on the TV everytime he gets a hit?

2) Which teams in each division have the brightest outlook for the next few seasons? Bleakest?

3) Who's the most overrated closer in baseball? Contrastly, who's the most underrated?

4) If the Yanks flop this season, what sort of fallout can we realistically expect to see?

1) Why is Mark Grudzielanuk suddenly looking like he can hit again? He was good for the Cubs in '03, but more of a liability in his brief '04 season. Has he really done that much better or am I just turning on the TV everytime he gets a hit?

 

He's on a hot streak that will cool down. Look for him to match his career numbers in the future.

 

2) Which teams in each division have the brightest outlook for the next few seasons? Bleakest?

 

I'll tackle this one in the future.

 

3) Who's the most overrated closer in baseball? Contrastly, who's the most underrated?

 

Shingo Takatsu, Danny Graves, and Brandon Lyon are overrated. For underrated, I would take Octavio Dotel, Miguel Batista, and B.J. Ryan.

 

4) If the Yanks flop this season, what sort of fallout can we realistically expect to see?

 

Probably a few more high-profile free agent signings to try and patch up some holes, and an effort to add "character" to the team.

Where'd Lyon come from, anyway? He's seemed competent for the job when I've watched him. I'd imagine Dotel gets underrated just because people only talk about him when it's negative.

Who would you say is the most overrated manager in the game today?

I'm not Al and my alliances may make my opinions biased, but Dusty Baker has to be at the top of the list. Here's a guy who's never been the manager of a really bad team, but he's still been praised to the high heavens as some sort of baseball savior. He managed a team that featured one of the greatest hitters in the game's history and after that, managed a team that offered one of the finest startion rotations around.

 

Injuries have plagued the Cubs the last two seasons, but don't think for a minute that Dusty's attitude hasn't rubbed off on his team in a negative way. They may have been losers before, but they at least weren't babies.

 

Despite all this, he's still considered a great manager who's able to turn water into wine. More people are catching on to his shortcomings now, but there's still a large circle that believe he's one of the game's best managers.

Where'd Lyon come from, anyway?  He's seemed competent for the job when I've watched him.  I'd imagine Dotel gets underrated just because people only talk about him when it's negative.

If you mean literally where he came from then Boston in the Schilling deal.

 

If you mean where did his sucess come from then he was a rookie when Boston brought him up and he claimed the closers spot in 2003 when Boston tried the "closer by commitee" deal. He pitched pretty well overall before getting hurt. The only vivid memories of him that I have is him striking out Jeter to save a game at Fenway and walkingin Posada to give New York a win after Todd Walker threw a ball away to let the tying run score. He has a good change up and curve ball from what I remember and a decent low 90s fastball. He got hurt sometime in 2003 and the Sox traded he, Casey Fossum (now with Tampa) and a few minor leaguers for Schilling arounf Thanksgiving of that year.

What's even more interesting about Lyon is his involvement in the Pittsburgh deal that brought Jeff Suppan and Scott Sauerbeck to the Red Sox in 2003. The original package was Lyon and Anastacio Martinez for Scott Sauerbeck and Mike Gonzalez, but the Pirates balked when their physicians found that Lyon's arm was completely wasted. The Red Sox eventually decided that they needed starting help too, so they ended up reconciling with Pittsburgh by shipping Gonzalez back to the Pirates (along with Freddy Sanchez) for Jeff Suppan.

 

Sauerbeck pitched to three batters in the 2003 playoff and Suppan wasn't even on the postseason roster. However, Lyon was part of the deal that netted Schilling. Finally, Mike Gonzalez is looking to be Pittsburgh's answer to B.J. Ryan.

 

And Lyon's on the DL with mild tendonitis in his right elbow.

Lyon essentially because I think he'll be an ok to good closer, but the press jumped on the bandwagon too quickly. The others covered the rest of the important information regarding Lyon.

 

Who would you say is the most overrated manager in the game today?

Dusty Baker's too obvious. I would say either Phil Garner of the Astros, or Ron Gardenhire of the Twins. Garner because he stunk up the joint with the Brewers before running a two month hot streak with the Astros, and Gardenhire because he's worshiped because the media loves a small-market, non-Moneyball winner. I think their success has more to due with their players than their manager.

Who (players, managers, GMs) would you say are unjustifably and justifably crapped on. And likewise, which are overrated and underrated?

Who (players, managers, GMs) would you say are unjustifably and justifably crapped on.  And likewise, which are overrated and underrated?

Unjustified: The usual suspects as far as players are concerned, chiefly Alex Rodriguez. Also Ken Griffey Jr. Managers I covered earlier, although I will mention that Tony LaRussa is a superb manager who gets criticized by various circles. I think Ed Wade gets some unfair criticism given that the Phillies' drafts have produced several very good players since he took over. Brian Cashman gets unfair criticism as well.

 

As far as justified, throw out some names and I'll make a judgment call.

1) Why's Brandon Webb finding so much success after a terrible 2004? Is he this good or was 2004 a better indication of the sort of pitcher he is?

2) Same deal with Matt Morris. He had an inconsistent season last year. This year he seems to have it going on. What's changed? Will it keep up?

3) Is Aaron Harang for real? He seems to be one of the few bright spots on the dismal Reds roster.

1) Why's Brandon Webb finding so much success after a terrible 2004? Is he this good or was 2004 a better indication of the sort of pitcher he is?

No big mystery here. Webb has simply tightened his control, walking far less batters than last season.

 

2) Same deal with Matt Morris. He had an inconsistent season last year. This year he seems to have it going on. What's changed? Will it keep up?

Matt Morris is the surprise of the season. He looked done after last year, but now he's pitching superb, and his peripherals match his performance. Honestly, I have no idea what's going on.

 

3) Is Aaron Harang for real? He seems to be one of the few bright spots on the dismal Reds roster.

Look for him to regress slightly. He'll always have his good and bad starts. His peripherals are good, but not outstanding.

2) Same deal with Matt Morris. He had an inconsistent season last year. This year he seems to have it going on. What's changed? Will it keep up?

Matt Morris is the surprise of the season. He looked done after last year, but now he's pitching superb, and his peripherals match his performance. Honestly, I have no idea what's going on.

From watching him, it seems like a couple of things:

 

1) He's learning how to pitch. At times last year, he seemed to be too aggressive, working much harder in at-bats than he needed to get outs. A lot of his improvement may be relaxation too, coming from not having to perform under the burden of expectations from a $12.5 million deal (unlike last year).

 

2) He seems to have fixed his mechanical issues from the stretch. Check out the difference in situational splits from last year to this year:

 

2004

2.38 ERA w/out runners, 94/31 K/BB ratio

7.97 ERA with runners on base, 37/25 K/BB ratio

 

2005:

3.22 ERA w/out runners, 22/6 K/BB ratio

2.51 ERA with runners on base, 10/3 K/BB ratio

1) What's with Randy Johnson? Are we finally seeing the regression of the Big Unit?

2) The Cubs are looking like they'll be lucky to hit .500 this season. If they were to make a trade, what sort of player (or what particular player) would be the one to go after?

1) What's with Randy Johnson? Are we finally seeing the regression of the Big Unit?

Johnson's fine. His K rate is down, but even with the regression, he is still a great pitcher. His biggest problem is that his team's defense is absolutely terrible.

 

2) The Cubs are looking like they'll be lucky to hit .500 this season. If they were to make a trade, what sort of player (or what particular player) would be the one to go after?

Hard to say. They could use a power bat, perhaps Aubrey Huff.

How exactly does on determine a pitcher perphirals? I've always wondered that.

 

Also why does the MLB start up the All-Star Ballots soon? I mean, aren't we like two-three months away from the All-Star game?